Fire Crux MageTier 2
at SBT Store Championship
decks
3
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
3-10-2
overall winrate
26.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.6%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
39.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1250
· median 1243
· range 1197–1312
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1221
Q3 1382
1538
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.0% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 31.1% | -10.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
